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The thesis of the book is that incumbents in markets – especially large and well entrenched markets – seldom survive fundamental technology changes in their industries. It should affect how you think if you are an incumbent but also if you’re a startup. Let’s start with the incumbents position in a market.
Not only did the incumbents fail to grasp the potential value, but it would have made no sense for them to go after such a small unprofitable niche, which would have been irrelevant to their top line, and eating away at their bottom line (CDs were 90%+ gross margin products back then). most of the value created would accrue to new entrants.
A Great company has a strong, defensible business model that can win market share from incumbents. Below, we analyzed data from 77 US-based or -centric companies founded after 2000 that have a $5B+ market cap and highlighted what it takes to be Great by the numbers—and why growth is especially important on that journey.
Between 2000 and 2002, Industry Canada reported that roughly a quarter of the venture funding for Canadian startups came from the United States, while the converse was not true – Canadian venture capitalists maybe accounted for 1% of venture investments into U.S. Because the U.S.
It’s another example of an incumbent recognizing that it makes more sense to buy a company that has developed technology that it wants rather than building it out itself – a process that would take far longer and require more resources than a simple acquisition would. “We In Q2 of 2000, that number dipped slightly to 46.
The largest incumbent in this space is Elastic, the makers of ElasticSearch, a public company founded in 2012. The launch generated some discussion on Hacker News and Reddit , and quickly built up 2000 stars on GitHub – today the tool is approaching 8,000 stars, a sign that people are liking it.
The most recent landscape for marketing products totaled more than 2000 alternatives. So, it is incumbent for each startup to determine which of the disciplines is most important, given the goals and the stage of the business. I expect to see many more startups chasing CMO dollars.
Starting in 2014, and perhaps even a bit before, startups have been able to raise capital at better terms than at any time since 2000. Inexpensive equity dollars enable capital-intensive companies to amass the warchest necessary to dethrone incumbents. More money raised for less dilution.
The decline doesn’t seem to be letting up in 2019, with retailers shutting down 23% more stores than they did at the start of last year (2000+ store closings), according to Coresight Research. Even well-established brands like Toys “R” Us and Sears are not immune to these trends, both declaring bankruptcy in 2018.
Alomar led startups through the dot-com bust of 2000 and the Great Recession of 2008 and will talk about whether investors are still prioritizing growth over profits and how to identify the proof points founding teams must define before their next raise.
In 2000, the majority of tech acquisitions were primarily stock. As the cash balances of large tech incumbents balloons (Apple is at greater than $30B, Google at more than $65B, Microsoft has $95B, etc), more and more M&A is primarily cash, because cash is cheap and interest rates are low.
I’ve assembled about 2400 M&A events of venture-backed technology companies since 2000 to compare the fraction of the total consideration which is stock and cash. As for the structure of the acquisition, there’s data that can be used for benchmarking. But today, cash is king.
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