Everyone is drafting their own startup Black Swan memo

Equity
852 Episodes • Last Episode: May 8, 2024

Welcome to Startups Weekly, a fresh, human-first take on this week’s startup news and trends. To get this in your inbox, subscribe here.

“You can often pick up significant market share in an economic downturn by just staying alive,” top startup accelerator Y Combinator wrote in an internal e-mail to its founders this week. The advice was one of ten bullet points in a memo meant to help companies navigate the economic downturn crushing tech. Other stand-out quotes include “plan for the worst” and “no one can predict how bad the economy will get, but things don’t look good.”

The email is a vibe shift from just a few weeks ago, when hundreds of Y Combinator startups — many of which already raised venture funding — presented themselves to the public on Demo Day. The startups were the first to receive Y Combinator’s new $500,000 standard check and were aggressively focused on international opportunity. Now, YC is saying that “this slow down will have a disproportionate impact on international companies,” among others.

YC advises founders to ‘plan for the worst’ amid market teardown

While Y Combinator’s memo wasn’t meant to be public, it isn’t the only one publishing a Black Swan Memo in preparation for what’s to come. TechCrunch obtained a series of memos that venture capitalist firms sent to portfolio companies about the market downturn. Some were hopeful, some were simple, and others were a vibe check as straightforward as, Can you tell us your ARR and cash-burn in writing? Pretty please?

I explored this topic in my most recent TechCrunch+ column, “It’s not business as usual (and investors are admitting it).” Subscribe to Equity for a podcast version of this conversation next week as well! In the rest of this newsletter, we’ll address more layoffs at tech companies, ghosts showing up to $44 billion dates, and Swyft startups. As always, you can support me by forwarding this newsletter to a friend or following me on Twitter or my blog.

So. Many. Layoffs.

May’s mad month of layoffs continues. Amanda and I wrote up a third installment of tech layoffs that rippled across all industries and stages. Employees from Section4, Carvana, DataRobot, Mural, Robinhood, On Deck, Thrasio, MainStreet and Netflix have been impacted by the workforce reductions. Some bigger companies are instituting hiring freezes, such as Twitter and Meta, or announcing a shift in strategy, such as Uber.

Here’s why it’s important: At time of publication, employees from Picsart, Netflix, Cars24 and Skillz were impacted by this week’s wave of reductions. It tells us who is vulnerable from a business model perspective — such as subscription-based businesses and marketplaces — and that companies may start to conduct more than one round of layoffs in the same month (cough, cough, Netflix).

red balloon with man helping people cross chasm
Image Credits: wildpixel (opens in a new window) / Getty Images

A Twitter bot wrote this

On Equity this week, your favorite podcast trio spoke about unicorn vibes, property ownership tech plays and, as you can tell by the headline, the latest in the Elon Musk Twitter story. At this point, we’re deciding if it’s even worth trying to keep track of the timeline.

Here’s why it’s important: Our weekly digest of tech news is a good way to track the big news items that shape this wonky landscape, and stay aware of deals that may have flown under your radar. In this case, we spent the biggest chunk of time deciding why Elon Musk is ghosting the $44 billion date that he made with Twitter. The answer, not so complicatedly, seems because he’s more interested in chasing than cuffing.

After we recorded our episode, more news about Elon Musk emerged from an investigation by Business Insider. Allegedly, Elon Musk exposed himself to a SpaceX flight attendant and propositioned her for sex. The company paid $250,000 for her silence, Business Insider reports. Musk has since denied the harassment claims. Read the entire story here.

Image Credits: Westend61 / Getty Images

Deal of the week

Swyft Cities! The Mountain View–based company, built by Google alums, wants to improve transportation and offer a lower-cost-per-mile vehicle with a smaller carbon emission footprint. The solution looks like an autonomous, lightweight, fixed-cable vehicle. The startup is the winner of the TechCrunch Sessions: Mobility 2022 pitch-off, with Beyond Aero as the runner-up.

Here’s why it’s important: Swyft has checked off a lot of ‘we’re not flailing” boxes. Alongside a MVP and debut customer agreement, the company set up a R&D center in Christchurch, New Zealand. It also works with Remarkables Park in Queenstown, a large office, retail and residential space, to develop a network of autonomous gondolas, TechCrunch reports. It plans to be up and running by August 2024.

Across the week

Seen on TechCrunch

Seen on TechCrunch+

Until next time,

N

Equity

Hosts

Author Avatar
Natasha Mascarenhas

Senior Reporter

Latest

Equity

Episodes

Good news, crypto founders! Venture capital activity is picking up in the sector, recovering from the multi-year lows investments fell to in late 2023. Put…

$450M for Noname, two billion-dollar rounds, and good news for crypto startups

News that Jack Dorsey is out at Bluesky caused a stir this weekend. After all, Dorsey is a former Twitter co-founder and CEO, so his investment of…

Dorsey leaves Bluesky, tech giants do more with less, and the next IPO

The downturn in venture capital funding has impacted startups, VC firms, and accelerators alike. One company in the final category, Techstars, has been shaking up…

Inside TC’s Techstars investigation and how AI is accelerating disability tech

A new venture capital supergroup is forming

Startups are not shying away from big projects. That’s my takeaway from news that The Browser Company’s Arc browser is now generally available for Windows users, just as Island raised a massive grip of capital for its enterprise-focused browser tool. It’s very encouraging to see startups going after core pieces of technology and not just…

A new venture capital supergroup is forming

Hans Tung, a managing partner at Notable Capital, formerly GGV Capital, has a lot of thoughts on the state of venture capital today. With $4.2 billion…

Notable Capital’s Hans Tung on why founders need to play the long game

We’re off to an AI-heavy start to the week. OpenAI has a new deal with the Financial Times that caught our eye. Sure, it’s another…

Musk’s xAI shows there’s more money on the sidelines for AI startups

Good news for Rubrik, bad news for TikTok and medium news for early-stage startups

Rubrik’s strong IPO pricing and warm reception by the public markets after its listing add more weight to the perspective that the public markets are not as closed to tech startups as some thought. If Rubrik’s result isn’t enough to break the logjam, well, maybe there’s something else going on. But there was a lot more that…

Good news for Rubrik, bad news for TikTok and medium news for early-stage startups

Well, if you are a big TikTok fan and live in the United States, I have some bad news for you: A bill that would…

The TikTok ban clears key hurdle while Perplexity AI continues to shake up search

Equity discusses the latest market news, upcoming earnings, IPOs, and what impact — if any — the recent bitcoin halving had on its value.

Salesforce’s silly deal dies, Rubrik’s IPO, and venture capital in space

To some investors, “down round” is a dirty phrase, but not to Notable Capital’s Hans Tung. Hans is a managing partner at Notable Capital, formerly…

Notable Capital’s Hans Tung on the state of VC and the upside to down rounds

It’s been more than a minute since Tesla went public, but the EV company was inescapable on TechCrunch this week. From layoffs to pricing changes…

Tesla’s newsy week, and is fintech having a moment?

What is worth $11 billion and wants to go to Mars to collect rocks? NASA’s mission to Mars to collect rocks that was expected to…

Andreessen Horowitz’s $7.2B new funds for a ‘new era’

Today on Equity, Tesla cuts staff, and OpenAI has plans for an office in Tokyo along with a new GPT-4 model for the Japanese language.

OpenAI plans new Tokyo office, Tesla lays offs thousands

When it comes to news items that we love at TechCrunch, IPOs rank pretty darn high. Another great newsy bit that comes along less frequently…

Beeper acquired by Automattic, fintech’s decline and YC’s lack of LatAm founders

Today on Equity we dig into Multiverse’s acquisition of Searchlight, Guesty’s massive Series F, Monad Labs and Cyera’s mega-round.

A $60M venture fund with a twist, and more startup-on-startup acquisitions

Hello, and welcome back to Equity, a podcast about the business of startups, where we unpack the numbers and nuance behind the headlines. This is our…

Could Congress actually pass a data privacy law?

The AI boom, love it or find it to be a bit more hype than substance, is here to stay. That means lots of companies…

What we’ve learned from the women behind the AI revolution

What a week, everyone. Two full days of Y Combinator demo day activity kept us busy, but the latest accelerator cohort’s launch was far from…

From YC to IPO: Winter 2024 Demo Day, Rubrik and Ibotta

Hello, and welcome back to Equity, a podcast about the business of startups, where we unpack the numbers and nuance behind the headlines. This is our…

Nvidia might be clouding the funding climate for AI chip startups, but Hailo is still fighting

Hello, and welcome back to Equity, a podcast about the business of startups, where we unpack the numbers and nuance behind the headlines. This is our…

Ads on Discord, AT&T passcode resets and podcast changes for Android users

Hello, and welcome to Equity, a podcast about the business of startups, where we unpack the numbers and nuance behind the headlines. This is our Friday…

Databricks’ GPT rival and who’s investing in ‘underdog’ founders

Wonderschool, a startup that provides software and support to help individuals and local governments spin up childcare businesses, has acquired EarlyDay, which operates an early…

Why a16z-backed Wonderschool is acquiring EarlyDay

Today on Equity, Alex talks stocks around the world, crypto prices, and the weekend’s biggest news: The the exit of Stability AI’s CEO, the EU’s…

Spotify throws its hat in the edtech ring

Hello, and welcome to Equity, a podcast about the business of startups, where we unpack the numbers and nuance behind the headlines. This is our Friday…

A $700M SAFE, IPOs are back and how one venture fund is transcending borders

Hello, and welcome back to Equity, the podcast about the business of startups, where we unpack the numbers and nuance behind the headlines. This is our…

Astera Labs goes public, and the Inflection-Microsoft AI saga continues

Hello, and welcome back to Equity, the podcast about the business of startups, where we unpack the numbers and nuance behind the headlines. This is our…

LinkedIn wants a piece of Wordle’s success

Listen here or wherever you get your podcasts. Hello, and welcome back to Equity, a podcast about the business of startups, where we unpack the numbers and…

How to avoid all the IPO work without annoying investors

Welcome back to Equity, the podcast about the business of startups, where we unpack the numbers and nuance behind the headlines.

Startups are hiring fewer workers and paying out less in equity comp

Today we took a look at Reddit’s new IPO filing, the potential impact of Grok being open sourced, and why Bobby Kotick wants to buy…

Musk’s Grok goes open source and Reddit updates its IPO filing

Listen here or wherever you get your podcasts. Hello, and welcome back to Equity, a podcast about the business of startups, where we unpack the numbers…

How many startups shut down last year compared to the year before? A lot